http://www.smh.com.au/business/dragon-could-get-burnt-20100830-147e0.html
Which is why the Celtic Tiger failed! The agency failure, OPM, other people's money, means funds disappear, possibly for a long time. The efficacy of capitalism is damaged. Until trust returns, long after demand returns, capital will not be accumulated honestly.
Tuesday, August 31, 2010
In a depression, every investment falls as people sell off!
http://mindonmoney.wordpress.com/2010/08/28/correlation-curse/
As things get worse, so do all investments! Cash or tools become the only thing people want and the demographics of the western world, including an Ireland where the young emigrate, will reinforce this as savings are spent on living expenses!
Yes, things will get that bad!
As things get worse, so do all investments! Cash or tools become the only thing people want and the demographics of the western world, including an Ireland where the young emigrate, will reinforce this as savings are spent on living expenses!
Yes, things will get that bad!
Saturday, August 28, 2010
Taliban fighters, some disguised as American soldiers, attack two U.S. bases
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/08/28/AR2010082801152.html
If they were US forces?
If they were US forces?
War technology
History tells us that Generals and occasionally Admirals, start a new war with the tactics of the last war. They then must adjust to realities.
Computer gaming tries to make this a thing of the past. Treaties try to tame some of the barbarity with waves of laws to be respected. Or ignored, if you are the USA.
Submarines are capable of bringing the UK to starvation within two months or less. Over populated and unable to feed itself, it is clearly more vulnerable than in WW 1 or WW 2. The USA was "lucky" in WW 2 because of clever use of submarines to spy out Japanese fleet positions.
Computer gaming tries to make this a thing of the past. Treaties try to tame some of the barbarity with waves of laws to be respected. Or ignored, if you are the USA.
Submarines are capable of bringing the UK to starvation within two months or less. Over populated and unable to feed itself, it is clearly more vulnerable than in WW 1 or WW 2. The USA was "lucky" in WW 2 because of clever use of submarines to spy out Japanese fleet positions.
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Land statistical reform
Some, like: http://irelandafternama.wordpress.com/2010/08/24/the-data-and-evidence-deficit-in-ireland/
think that land was the cause of the mess in Ireland. Proposals to gauge ecerything may not be successful.However, taxing land adequately would also solve the problem.
This greater availability of information of the land market, if successful, would mean that people who wished could say that land values are out of whack even more than normal in Ireland. So what? Those who do, will be invited to commit suicide by the political leader of the day!
Even if successful, one day in the future, the banks will lend and lend as fast as they can. What is bought could be bulbs, shares in a secret venture in the South Seas or plastic surgery. The point is that eventually, banks satisfy their market! It takes a long while. But it always has happened. Then, almost suddenly, but inevitably, after unconscionably long inflation, no one borrows and the asset class(es) deflate! The problem is not merely a peasant fetish for "land, more land!", rather it is greed, lack of regulation and banking!
think that land was the cause of the mess in Ireland. Proposals to gauge ecerything may not be successful.However, taxing land adequately would also solve the problem.
This greater availability of information of the land market, if successful, would mean that people who wished could say that land values are out of whack even more than normal in Ireland. So what? Those who do, will be invited to commit suicide by the political leader of the day!
Even if successful, one day in the future, the banks will lend and lend as fast as they can. What is bought could be bulbs, shares in a secret venture in the South Seas or plastic surgery. The point is that eventually, banks satisfy their market! It takes a long while. But it always has happened. Then, almost suddenly, but inevitably, after unconscionably long inflation, no one borrows and the asset class(es) deflate! The problem is not merely a peasant fetish for "land, more land!", rather it is greed, lack of regulation and banking!
Do-Gooders: People Don't Like Unselfish Colleagues
As one of these stupid people, I recommend this research!
http://www.sott.net/articles/show/214128-Do-Gooders-Get-Voted-Off-Island-First-People-Don-t-Really-Like-Unselfish-Colleagues-Psychologists-Find
Who said:
Being saintly is not difficult, but is disruptive and sometimes, just to piss others off, I do the very unselfish. Very selfish of me!
I despise all you little people, who do not possess the spirit to get involved even occasionally. Scurrying back to your hovel, eating your gruel, thanking your psycho bosses for their bullying! Enjoy your massive mortgages, huddling in the slime of the suburbs. Run, the sky is falling! Fear destroys you slowly, until you eat your own young, sending them off to foreign lands to kill. Look not for mercy, you despise it! Set low standards and live down to them. Tolerate no disparity among colleagues, it threatens a cosy unexamined existence. Rats will eat one another as the end comes. Rats are mammals.....
http://www.sott.net/articles/show/214128-Do-Gooders-Get-Voted-Off-Island-First-People-Don-t-Really-Like-Unselfish-Colleagues-Psychologists-Find
Who said:
Being saintly is not difficult, but is disruptive and sometimes, just to piss others off, I do the very unselfish. Very selfish of me!
I despise all you little people, who do not possess the spirit to get involved even occasionally. Scurrying back to your hovel, eating your gruel, thanking your psycho bosses for their bullying! Enjoy your massive mortgages, huddling in the slime of the suburbs. Run, the sky is falling! Fear destroys you slowly, until you eat your own young, sending them off to foreign lands to kill. Look not for mercy, you despise it! Set low standards and live down to them. Tolerate no disparity among colleagues, it threatens a cosy unexamined existence. Rats will eat one another as the end comes. Rats are mammals.....
Sunday, August 22, 2010
'Worse to come' when NAMA steps in
http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/worse-to-come-when-nama-steps-in-2306458.html
No, really? As if that was not foreseeable! Good hotels and developments being driven to the wall by bad ones, controlled by the government, in many cases! A real vote getter for Fianna Fail!
Economic nonsense brought to you by the team that believes in a rising tide!
No, really? As if that was not foreseeable! Good hotels and developments being driven to the wall by bad ones, controlled by the government, in many cases! A real vote getter for Fianna Fail!
Economic nonsense brought to you by the team that believes in a rising tide!
Saturday, August 21, 2010
Depression Capital scarcity!
"However, Mr Smith said higher wholesale funding costs were now a fixed feature of banking as a result of the global financial crisis."
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/anz-chief-hints-at-rate-rise-as-its-profits-rise-37pc/story-fn65t1pq-1225907970674
While justification of excessive profits is to be expected from bankers, the re-capitalization of banking continues, even in Australia.
The point is that capital is scarce: something obvious to anyone who knows history. The massive losses of fictional capital, caused by the inevitable over capacity and lack of investment opportunity, have massive ramifications.
If these are fully understood, the damage inflicted upon the system will be minimized. However, it suits amny to ensure maximum confusion and agrravated disruption in certain areas. This enables "super" investment opportunity, eventually.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/anz-chief-hints-at-rate-rise-as-its-profits-rise-37pc/story-fn65t1pq-1225907970674
While justification of excessive profits is to be expected from bankers, the re-capitalization of banking continues, even in Australia.
The point is that capital is scarce: something obvious to anyone who knows history. The massive losses of fictional capital, caused by the inevitable over capacity and lack of investment opportunity, have massive ramifications.
If these are fully understood, the damage inflicted upon the system will be minimized. However, it suits amny to ensure maximum confusion and agrravated disruption in certain areas. This enables "super" investment opportunity, eventually.
Friday, August 20, 2010
Depression
Everyone reading this should consider what changes to lifestyle should be made in order to survive or even prosper when paradigms have changed.
Paper assets are and will be worthless, unless there is an easy way of enforcing them. Physical assets will be paramount. They can always be traded for something more useful. Barter is not exposed to taxation, a significant cost in a moribund economy. Talent will be useful as purchasing the labour of others will diminish considerably.
Time will increase as cash decreases. Two incomes will become rare. Expect employers to discriminate against you. Self employment may be the only viable option. Gowing food costs twice or three times buying food, but if you have the time and not the cash you have no option.
Expect certain crimes to increase.
Expect cutbacks in public services and increases in taxation. Money will move less often and tax revenues will fall. Formal employment will fall and contracting will increase often without paperwork. Large, expensive assets will sell for much less, as desperate people sell off to pay off loans.
Paper assets are and will be worthless, unless there is an easy way of enforcing them. Physical assets will be paramount. They can always be traded for something more useful. Barter is not exposed to taxation, a significant cost in a moribund economy. Talent will be useful as purchasing the labour of others will diminish considerably.
Time will increase as cash decreases. Two incomes will become rare. Expect employers to discriminate against you. Self employment may be the only viable option. Gowing food costs twice or three times buying food, but if you have the time and not the cash you have no option.
Expect certain crimes to increase.
Expect cutbacks in public services and increases in taxation. Money will move less often and tax revenues will fall. Formal employment will fall and contracting will increase often without paperwork. Large, expensive assets will sell for much less, as desperate people sell off to pay off loans.
Monday, August 16, 2010
Derivatives
http://www.philstockworld.com/2010/08/15/the-horrific-derivatives-bubble-that-could-one-day-destroy-the-entire-world-financial-system/
Just one article in many warning that fake assets and real liabilities will be a cause of financial problems, "soon".
The article makes the point that no one, especially USA legislators, understands the implications as the size of the derivatives mess is so colossal!
I say it is easy: nothing that is in your possession will be affected badly. But anything on paper, a promise of rewards to come, probably no longer exists in the real or any other world. All promises from nice happy pleasant smart people who have made millions for you will ever be honoured. So sad. Shares, bonds insurance policies, streams of income: all gone "soon".
Just one article in many warning that fake assets and real liabilities will be a cause of financial problems, "soon".
The article makes the point that no one, especially USA legislators, understands the implications as the size of the derivatives mess is so colossal!
I say it is easy: nothing that is in your possession will be affected badly. But anything on paper, a promise of rewards to come, probably no longer exists in the real or any other world. All promises from nice happy pleasant smart people who have made millions for you will ever be honoured. So sad. Shares, bonds insurance policies, streams of income: all gone "soon".
Thursday, August 5, 2010
Laws justify theft!
" Think about it a bit further: the more complex the regulation, the more bureaucratic the network, the more a regulator who knows the loops and glitches would benefit from it later, as his regulator edge would be a convex function of his differential knowledge. This is a franchise. "
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nassim-nicholas-taleb/the-regulator-franchise-o_b_667967.html
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nassim-nicholas-taleb/the-regulator-franchise-o_b_667967.html
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