Monday, April 12, 2010

Sovereign repudiation of debt, yet?

Yes. There is a distinct probability that Greece and others will renegotiate debt. It makes sense when we look at what is going to happen and how it has happened. The idea that there is an unpredictable business cycle and that banks were merely badly run is a canard. Once this is fully appreciated, then the term to use is economic warfare.

Those who controlled capital and access by banks thereto, are responsible for the bubbles formed. They knew it was happening and it can be proven that they discouraged and sabotaged efforts to prevent it ever since, at least, 1999.

Therefore, sovereigns, having taken responsibility, naively or otherwise, are entitled to take this guilt into account when considering repayment. The best way to do this is to reacquire the capital taken by the other side, and then negotiate from a position of strength and keep the economies concerned disrupted to the minimum. However, the inflation has also benefitted countries, although Ireland was lazy, greedy and astupid, the real uninflated activity will be far less than currently in the FIRE sector of the economy. Some collapse there is inevitable and nothing good comes from delay.

Nama is a waste of time and money. But it can be sorted out in due course. Probably behind closed doors.

In the meantime, fiat currencies must devalue. Norway, Australia, etc are almost gold currencies. They too may be vulnerable, if badly led. Interesting times. Many forces will be acting to make their agenda effective. Rigging markets is the least of it, but it will be widespread.

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